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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (6562)4/8/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: vegetarian  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
>>M Carter, the only "sure win" I have found is shorting floorless convertibles<<

I agree Roger; even there it still needs patience to possibly ride out manipulation by MM that can drive the stock price higher than your shorting point based on either their small float or heavy insider holding like you did in case of ESMC when it was jacked up or now based on what is happening to TERA or SOF etc, eventually they do work out.
The point here is that these companies are in financial difficulty and shorting them is likely to be successful over shorter horizon as compared to shorting the momentum-mobiles out of which magic is being expected for the future.
History has shown that the same thing goes for longs; the ones that are more likely to be successful are the ones that have good products, management, financial structure etc; how else other than analysis would one locate these gems? when people invest in momentum stocks they are essentially beleiving that they are smarter than others and will get out in time to take the profit before the thing goes down.
The momentum highway is littered with too much road-kill to be driving safely on it with any degree of confidence; any instilled confidence should necessarily come out of ignoring the corpses on that road.
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