OECD predicts 2.0% growth of Russian economy this year, 4.0%
in 1999... -Vi
PARIS, April 8 (AFP) - The Russian economy did not shrink in
1997 for the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and
is set to grow through 1998 and 1999 provided economic reforms
continue, the OECD said Wednesday.
In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook report, the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated Russian economic
growth at 0.4 percent in 1997, and said gross domestic product is
likely to grow 2.0 percent this year and 4.0 percent in 1999.
But it warned that "the future health of the Russian economy,
and a revival of fixed capital investment, will depend greatly on
progress in reform" of the economy, particularly tax reform and
large-scale privatisation.
The fallout from the Asian crisis and its negative effect on
financial markets generally is likely to lead to a "very
problematic" increase in the cost of government debt in Russia and
other developing economies, the OECD said.
Russia is not one of the 29 industrial countries in the OECD,
but three other former Soviet bloc countries are -- Hungary, Poland
and the Czech Republic.
The OECD forecast continued strong growth for Poland, with GDP
rising 5.8 percent this year and 5.6 percent in 1999 after growing
6.9 percent last year, while Hungary is expected to see growth of
4.3 percent this year and 4.6 percent in 1999, up from 3.8 percent
in 1997.
But the Czech Republic will fare less well, as the economy
continues to suffer the after-effects of a currency crisis in May
last year that trimmed GDP growth for 1997 to 1.0 percent.
Czech GDP growth is forecast to rise 0.9 percent this year and
1.2 percent in 1999, but the economy's future health depends on
faster economic reform, particularly a rapid privatisation of banks,
the OECD said. |
