Revised numbers for initial line potential.
A newer spec sheet is available, dated 11/97 and featuring laptop cells in three thicknesses: 4, 6,and 8mm. A copy appeared in a colleague's new investor packet.
After reviewing the information and comparing notes with another investor familiar with the line capacities, it appears that my revenue estimates for Line 1 in the earlier post may be conservative by a factor of three.
Assuming three 6mm cells per finished laptop battery in the CD bay*,
at 17.5 Whr per cell, we get 52 Whr total. Using $1.75 per Whr (conservative, in my view, due to the uniqueness of the product) we get $91 of gross revenue per finished battery.
In the earlier post, I used 1.25M batteries/year as a median output for Line 1 (starting at 0 and ramping to 2.5M/year.) Assuming a 50% yield, we get 0.15M batteries per Q. That's about $13.5M in gross revenues per quarter from just the first (slower) line at startup, using conservative yield and shift numbers (50% and 2, respectively.)
At that rate, Valence would easily meet the IDB's $4M criteria in the first quarter or two of operation. Perhaps more importantly, Street analysts - when they're finally allowed into the plant - will not easily ignore the potential numbers from just one Valence line.
(*Four 6mm cells - or three 8mm - might even fit in the ROM space, boosting the Whr significantly.)
If anyone knows of additional factors or corrections that should be applied to the above estimates, please post.
|
