Keith
I have optimism in the sector, but I also see a new spurt of consolidiation begining in about a month and lasting through the summer. YURI will need to plan on positioning themselves for one of these acquisitions to succeed - they simply can not succeed selling ATM switches against the likes of ASND, LU, NT, and CSCO to the carriers - even with BAY's help. I should point out that LU has thier own ATM switches and will likly not be interested in YURI's products.
As for the network edge, YURI can not hope to compete in a layer 3 world where there are 100's of man years of development already completed in products being sold by COMS, BAY, and CSCO. So, YURI's total market is shrinking. This coupled with new entrants into the ever shrinking ATM CPE market doesn't give me much long term optimism about this particular niche. Even so, investing is no place for blind optimism. Optimism based on dd and reasonably good expectations on target markets and target market growth (as well as competitive advantage) is all you can really go on.
I'm a short term investor on this stock with, you're right, a small position relative to my other investments, but probably a good deal larger than yours <g>. And I will be out of this stock in Q4 latest because I don't have confidence about YURI's target market or where they could grow their existing technology. I think thier only chance is to either sell now to BAY who can use the ATM CPE and expertise, build a ATM switch and then sell to BAY (not sure if this creates any additional value, but it may make YURI look more interesting to BAY who doesn't have a switch). LU could be interested for the CPE and LU will again start acquiring again shortly. ERICY - not a chance here.
You apparently have more faith in the target market than I - so be it. Good luck on your investment. Even if I could I would not try to influence your investment style. I only present information here that I believe is useful to others on this thread attempting to make a fully informed decision about YURI. It's up to each individual to use this data or not.
Gary |
