I had the same thoughts about PC on a chip.Since I continue to be a long term share holder that is adding to his position in DELL, I had to come to terms with the PC on a chip issue myself.
First, the migration of features onto the chip is a slow process. The first chips with sound card capability (MMX)just came out. We still don't have the premium sound capability of the best sound cards. Where is the midi capability? The chips don't have on-chip video for video conferencing built in yet.Why not because the chip manufacturer will only integrate the base capability that is needed by every user onto a chip.
Things that typically go into a PC are:
Motherboard (it's still going to be there, but some on board features could get sucked into the processor. Currently it is unlikely that the RAM would be pulled into the chip itself since it is cheap and getting cheaper)
Video Card (for the monitor) now base configurations need 2MB video Ram, but most people are smart to put in at least 4MB. I prefer 8 myself to allow higher resolution and color depth.
Disk drive/floppy interface card. (IDE cards and SCSI interface cards are the two current approaches). Does USB replace this? I don't pretend to know. SCSI and SCSI peripherals are more expensive in general so I wouldn't expect the CPU manufacturer to include this capability right away.
Other Add-in boards like sound cards(MMX already takes out the low end here), network cards, modem cards, video capture/playback cards, etc. Always a new and better model that they would have to chase. Of all of these, I would expect to see the network access capability move into the processor or be supported on the mother board first. More and more machines need to live in the networked world.
The biggest reason that one chip PCs are not a direct threat to box makers, is that the industry keeps on coming up with new things to stick in the box. Things that most PCs don't have yet, like TV tuners, New kinds of connections to the outside world like cable modems, New kinds of disk systems (100 Terabyte crystal memory drives, voice interface units, etc.
Also, doesn't it make sense that before the whole industry collapses on itself due the the super integration, that smart companies like DELL would find new strategic directions to continue their growth?
The management at DELL isn't stupid. They will be a part of that transition, not caught by surprise.
This is all just IMHO.
any other thoughts?
Craig |
