Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO)

MO 58.69

+0.6%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (1326)	4/9/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: RWilson	Read Replies (1) of 6439

I also held and bought Pfizer in '93 as well as MO throughout the 80's. Litigation fear and low p/e was a great formula for making money. Now I'm selling MO on strength for the follwowing reaons after a 15 year holding period: 1. On Marlboro Tueday and earlier when shares went to a 45% discount to the market EPS were growing 18-22%. 2. Today's relative multiple is 45% discount to S&P. This alone is what is driving many young analysts to "Upgrade". Alan Kaplan @ Merrill is among the oldest analaysts you will find. Been there. 3. Today's EPS outlook is all time low visibility. '98-'99 maybe 10-11%EPS growth. Stock is trading at 11-12x '99 (E). In '93 it traded at 8.5x a 20% 3 year average growth rate. HUGE DIFFERENCE that I think many knee-jerk tobacco investors are missing. Game has changed. Management has lost control of the ball by settling with stupid States. All the domestic profits are going to the bonehead State settlements. Big mistake buy managemnt to "pay-off" tort bar and governemrnt. Whaaythink? RW

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