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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Mark Smith who wrote (6677)4/9/1998 9:09:00 PM
From: Timoteo   of 18691
 
Mark and all:YHOO and shorting strategy. Fundamentally, my opinion has not changed on YHOO, but the market is currently driven by emotion and momentum, not fundamentals. I anticipated .05 earnings (which they were if you subtract investment income) and felt that the market was taking a breather and that YHOO would sell on the news. It was clear by 10:30 a.m. that was not going to be the case. Consequently, a trading player must follow the herd or get trampled by it. I trade (and consequently post) less frequently, but those shorts (or longs) are different than "sell and hold" shorts. ZITL is a sell and hold short and is a prime example of why shorts hold positions through high losses. ZITL had a run comparable to YHOO peaking @ 72. Now its 12 and headed to 5. VVUS, DDIM, PRST, CLFY and Diana Corp are others that some of the experienced shorters on this thread have made big money on.

Margin calls are a real concern for short sellers. I learned the hard way to maintain a reasonable short position. Shorting in a bull market is a high risk game and Roger is right about the internet stocks being the tulip craze of 97/98 just as Y2K was a year ago. It was well publicized that DDIM was a scam, but that didn't stop it from becoming a billion dollar company. If I was still holding all the DDIM and ZITL shares I shorted in the past I'd be ahead by mid 6 figures.

Volume tells nothing about short covering since much of the volume is simple trading and momentum players. I think a split is very likely since it will further inflate price and the stock is actually at a level where it "should" split.

Best Wishes,

Timoteo
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