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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Mitchell Jones who wrote (3022)4/10/1998 11:48:00 AM
From: Allen Benn  Read Replies (2) of 10309
 
Why Windows CE and deeply embedded systems don't mix.

Many contributors to this thread have disparaged Microsoft's ability to ever field a competitive RTOS. Others warn that betting against Microsoft is a loser's game. These latter observers focus exclusively on Microsoft's successes and ignore their frequent failures. My position is that Microsoft usually wins when they make a market move that is an extension of their PC monopoly and is consistent with their business model, but not otherwise.

Windows NT is a natural extension of Microsoft's PC monopoly, and thanks to Moore's Law is slowly eating its way up the workstation and server sectors of business computers. Microsoft keeps throwing everything into Windows NT but the kitchen sink (as I recall it will have over 25 million lines of code) and uses economies of scale, and corporations' insistence on defacto standards, to slowly defeat Unix competition. Windows NT borrows the PC business model, with the exact same result: inevitable dominance.

The AutoPC is another example of an extension of the PC, and may well end up becoming another Microsoft monopoly despite strong resistance by every automobile manufacturer in the world.

But the important question for WIND is not what happens to the AutoPC, but what happens to all those other embedded computers in the future automobile? Any argument over the usefulness of even the real-time version of Windows CE for those chores was settled when Microsoft's Mr. Barbagalio stated for the Wall Street Journal, "Windows CE will work in automobile-dashboard systems, for example, but might not fit into brakes or engine controls."

Why is Microsoft so willing to yield to WIND all those juicy embedded systems? One hint can be found in the README file that comes with the Windows CE product:

There are a number of known issues with day to day use of Windows CE that occasionally cause the system to freeze or run out of memory. When this happens, if possible, close all applications and reset the device. If you find you cannot close the applications then just reset the device directly. Be sure to frequently save your work.

Anyone who thinks this warning is just a temporary limitation of Windows CE is ignoring how Microsoft works and why it is so successful. Microsoft's proven approach for developing software for human consumption and forgiveness is anathema to the culture and requirements of embedded systems. Microsoft's shrink-wrapped, OEM business model simply will not work in the heterogeneous industrial world of embedded systems.

Microsoft knows it; we know it; at some point the Street will know it.

Allen
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