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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (38998)4/10/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9  Read Replies (1) of 58727
 
I knew i should have gotten me a better Economics teacher for econ I and II

okay scroll down for my question:


I think that the Plonk trigger will be Japan. Japanese investors did not like the relief
package that was just revealed over there. Every major government in the world has
been unloading dollars against the yen to stop the damage. It hasn't been working yet.
Soon the BOJ will run out of dollars to dump. Next step is to begin to dump the bonds
that they are holding .. OR .. the Japanese government decides that it is finally time to fix
the problem for real and dumps bonds.

Either way a s**tload of bonds are coming this way. I think that

it will happen so fast
that it won't be able to be played over here. All the action will happen before the bell. In
the meanwhile, by watching the exchange rates, we will be able to see where the
liquidity is flowing to.

If there is ANY WAY to do it the mom and pop folks in Japan will be trying to get their
money out of Japan. They may go for gold. They may go for US bonds. They may go
for US stocks. They may try to go to Zurich.

okay....thursday i asked you to explain about this whole phenomenon and you basically said that yen coming here makes our market go higher....

I brought up this whole thing of weak dollar brings on inflation which is bad for the market ( from the "bond lady" on cnbc) (and at what point does the weak dollar...yen coming here...good for the market...give way to weak dollar...inflation....and bad for the market)

I think it is not the mom and pops that cause the true problem...its the big guys......and the big guys usually start the trend and the mom and pop follow through.... (except I believe in our last little downdraft it is the little guy that really didnt follow through after the big guys)

so what is the bottom line of this....

stronger yen against the dollar means yen coming here props up the market......was the first part...so how does that play in with the rest of your scenario?????
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