If THQI succeeds in having trailing earnings of $1.60 or higher in a
couple of weeks (36 cents or higher in Q1), THQI may break through its
old highs. In Q2 of 1997 THQI earned 14 cents and in Q3 20 cents. So
the year ago comps have the potential of looking very strong in
upcoming quarters.
I don't see Q4 as a hurdle either. You asked about Rugrats. No one
can say for certain how well a game will sell before it is released.
But there are good signs with Rugrats. As we've discussed before on
this thread: 1)BROD will release the PC version and BROD as well as
other companies in the sector rarely take on low profile games in the
Christmas season. Why would they have released Riven in Q4 otherwise?
2)Rugrats is the top-rated Nickelodeon program. 3)There is a feature
movie that will be released in Q4 at the same time that the games hit
retail. 4)If Sigmund spotted Rugrats promo material at Burger King
as part of BK's marketing campaign, you can be sure that it has a
a big place in pop culture. These are positive signs. But there is no
way to quantify actual sales until we get to Q1 1999.
As for how important WCW would have been to Q3 and Q4 earnings
in 1999 if it was around, take a look at the 10K. A large part of a
game's sales are concentrated in the first couple of months of its
release, according to the 10K. If we use that as our standard, WCW
will be stodgier than Borscht soup in a year. There are plenty of
examples of this sort of thing: look at Mortal Kombat 4. It was
released by Midway Games last Fall and it sucked.
THQI needs to look elsewhere for new hits and Rugrats is certainly
promising in that sense. Other than that, the 10K shows that 18 games
will be released in the Summer and Fall alone. Correct me if I'm wrong,
but didn't THQI two weeks ago announce another top title for 1999
that had been a success on the PC platform?
Lastly, as far as the insider sales, wouldn't you take SOME profit after
seeing your company's stock appreicate more than 300% in price? I am
still waiting for confirmation on insider buying rumors actually, although
you should not factor this into your buying decision because it has
yet to be confirmed.
One thing I'm looking for during the conference call in a couple of
weeks are very strong forward statements by Farrell about THQI and
the industry. But I have a feeling that Farrell is so unhyped that
we probably won't get any. Like Wildman, I'll settle for 36 to 39
cents earnings in Q1. And if Todd is right, dim sum is on me.
Bleeker |
