Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 204.41

-1.0%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (43601)	4/10/1998 12:55:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) of 61433

Cisco FY 97 Q1 97 $1.430B Q2 97 $1.592B Q3 97 $1.653B Q4 97 $1.765B FY 97 $6.440B FY 98 Q1 98 $1.869B (31% growth rate) Q2 98 $2.016B (27$ growth rate) figuring a 25% rate for Q3/4 Q3 98 $2.066B (est.) Q4 98 $2.206B (est.) FY 98 $8.157b (est.) ASND FY97 Q1 $292.8M Q2 $311.7M (6.5% Q1-Q2) Q3 $270.4M (-13.2% Q2-Q3) Q4 $292.5M (7.6% Q3-Q4) FY 97 $1.167B Fy 98 Q1 $305.1M (4.1% Q4-Q1) (4.2% Yr/Yr growth rate) Q2 $320.3M (est. at 5% qtr/qtr growth!) Q3 $336.4M (est. at 5% qtr/qtr growth) Q4 $353.2M (est. at 5% qtr/qtr growth) FY 98 $1.360B (18.8% year over year) Dennis.. .note I've been pessimistic about Csco (forecasting slowing growth), and optimistic about ASND (forecasting increasing growth - based only on track record). ASND qtr/qtr growth has averaged below 5% for the past 5 quarters yet I gave them 5%. Also I did a quarter over quarter growth which eliminates the poor quarter they had last year which were due to the acquisition. I don't think this was market softness...but if it was. Furthermore this last quarter of revenues still isn't up to Q2 of last year (summer quarter) an off quarter...It's taking ASND a long time to turn around and the competition is moving. Even after all these factors (and discounting CSCO's growth to only 20% yr/yr which they've consistently beaten) ASND still is significantly off the market leaders growth rate. This is my concern. ASND has to step it up signficantly....even to make the $1.4B discussed in the conference. And, even $1.4B still put's them slightly off a 20% growth rate (19.9%). Still behind the leader..which means lost market share. Nuf said.. Gary (not Korn)

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