MB:
Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts.
>>>but Gateway is one I believe will not exist in 5 years.
Takeover or declining to an extent that it will have no other option besides being takeover?
>>>You never know when somebody really stupid will do a takeover, look at Citicorp and Travellers, but I don't see any buyers in this environment.
Yes, the development of these financial conglomerates at the height of this bull market is an extremely dangerous development for the national economy. Once the cycle turn unfavorable, these inflexible institutions will be very expensive and difficult to bail out. As for GTW, I do think it would be possible for a takeover anytime, despite its forecoming trouble. Like you said, the possibilty of a stupid buyer can't be ruled out in this bull market with inflated stock currency.
>>>Gateway is nowhere is cheap pcs and they are nowhere in upscale pcs
They made a move to increase corporate sales. After disappointing results, they "refocus" to their core business. But the glut is gradually extending upstream. The company's international presence is weaker than most of its major rivals.
>>>Dell may have more than a few quarters to go. But I see them hitting the wall by this time next year. Either that, or every other boxmaker will be close to belly-up.
There just isn't any everyday software which require more computing power. And if NSM is right. Their PC on a chip is absolutely scary for the PC and chip industry. Revolutionary indeed.
And this had been a very powerful upgrade cycle. I suspect a lot of the pent up demand has been fulfilled. The upside for Dell, is that, its worldwide market share, may still double form the current 6% in the long term future. Not enough to compensate for price and margin erosion though.
Guy |
