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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (17889)4/11/1998 10:14:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
OJ-- I would think if we are unable to break the 20 days moving average on composite we will have a run back up to 1857. I think we are not here at these lofty levels as a result of default-- going back I always said and will continue my adherence to my basic approach the so called basing in bull market-- I would consider SOX present action as nothing but basing between 280- 330 area we have seen simlar actions in BKX recently at 690 and 990 SPM.

Let me give you one of my very simple slide rule law -- once when fundamentals are intact and we have corrective action like SPX 850 and 985 movements within a range from Aug to Dec- once 992 was taken out we had run up to 1130 like a projectile- I pointed out this potential run by taking the breakout as centre of my circle with outer circumference at 890 the first time that suport was tested- once you draw that circle and cut the vertical axis I got the fgigure of 1130-the longer is the basing action the faster and steeper will be the projectile like movement once the trend is broken upward or downward. Similarly if it would have broken the lower support of 890 on criterion on double break my target was 770 or even lower.

It is this simple rule which tells me to stay long on Techs with my insurance on short side with SPM puts until June-- if techs fail we will see a major correction on SPM and that is my game plan-- I am long techs with a view that rising tide will lift all boats however I don't expect SPM to take out 1155 if INTC MSFT and 2 trillion $ cap underperforms.

I am extremely sorry for not being very clear as much I would like but I try my best to put my point across. You are a gentleman and disagreeing with you is a pleasure I am sure you are benevolent enough to forgive if I am wrong. I think it has always been about two different views of the market- one will prevail but the most important is to atleast have a view and express it cogently. Thanks for your veery informative posts.
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