Bonnie; It seems to me not just on this thread but as a general
rule people think they have to call the markets, or that they
can always do this with some degree of being more right than wrong.
This is the trap so many fall into, and I've seen it over and
over not just in the markets..but with political issues, right
down to the weather.
What I'm leading into , is it's just a minority that looks at things
and says well there is no way to call it at this time.
To many variables at this time to call the market, while some
individual issues may be called any one calling the market as
up or down has to be out of their mind dreaming or such.
I expect some volatility because right now there is not one damm
indicator that can be considered reliable.
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This is like when navigating , we learn to know when the loran,
and the GPS are giving mixed signals..even the compass
can get off..so indicators can be up, down ..or unreliable..
and it seems to me very few people have a critera that says
hey "none of the indicators can be depended on at this time"
yet this is one of the frist things they should learn.
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This race can not be called there are too many wild cards.
Any one who gets it right does so by luck, and is setting
themselves up for a wammy later on.
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Big players who can trade cheap can straddle the market with
options or futures and make money on the volatility..but need to be hedged that they win either way it goes as long as the move is a good
one. They only lose if the market goes flat. And that is the
only thing I see that I don't think will happen.
Very sharp hegdge players can come out ahead with a plan, all
others are flying on luck and with a 50/50 chance and if you
bet that way long enough you lose because of the "nut" ..
meaning the spread and commissions eat away at your capital,
unless you are not right at lot more than wrong. The only way to
get that edge is to make calls when at least most of the
indicators have shown to be reliable and agree with one another.
I can tell you right now..that is not the case.
The patterns are all mixed up, this market don't favor the
bulls or bears right now..just the very astute hedger has
the edge. I'm not in that category so I'm sitting it out,
untill I see a better trend or pattern in the indicators,
it's like navigating in the FOG..and without a radar.
Had Thursday not ended with such a reversal, and in the face
of this long weekend..and in the face of the currency
manipulations I would think down..but all that said wait a
min..something is not what it seems..
Jim
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