Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Allen Furlan who wrote (6770)	4/11/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) of 18691

AF: (sorry about the typos don't feel like spell checking now) I will offer a few suggestions but please do not consider them investment advice. You should do your own homework (I am a bit tired of having some inexperienced "bull market born trades" who missuse the leveled playing field that SI has become to post with no regard for good manners/respect when following "tips" they hope will turn into 50% returns in a week!) I agree with the notion of staying away from the net stocks. This will come down but only God knows when. I am short AOL and YHOO but I would not short these now. I may even cover some of my position in AOL in which I am overextended once the short scare runs its course. Some people disagree on shorting stocks just on valuation. An element of bad news/dissapointment must be present. Notice that the folks at SI did a lot of talking about WDRY but before "uncle Asensio came out" the stock was trading above 30. We have another dog BFT we have been hammering at for several months and the stock just keeps on rising! Just like WDRY did. Another thing I would keep in mind is deversifying your shorts. Always ask yourself the question: what would happen if this puppy doubles on me? Unfortunately the full text search is not working the way it should. Jill "castrated it" I guess to improve search times due to the exponential growth in posts. So you will have to comb Roger's thread and/or the individual thread. In the extremelly overvalued arena with possible negative news coming in Q1 results I would consider AVEI: Extremely overvalued based on PE. Heavy insider selling. Significant Asian exposure. Fair risk of litigation related bad news, J&J and others suing for patent infringement, European distributors stockholders, also suing. Key competitor GDN came in soft in Q1. In the scam arena: The leader is probably ZITL which recently run up to 16 now around 12 and should fall once another terrible quarter is announced. ZONA is another manipulated puppy which should eventually run out of gas as no signs of ever getting FDA approval to their useless drugs is apparent. The problem you are having with Safeway is that anystock perceived as not having Asian exposure has gone through the roof as Money Managers steer away from earnings dissapointments during the first quarter. In the y2k arena, I have successfully shorted SEEC, DDIM (now covered but will reshort if they wake uo into the 20's again). Still short ACLY,a nd one of my favorites is a "cult like" one called ALYD. I am under water on that one but holding with confidence, aprticularly after reading their first 10K as a NASDAQ listed stock. I recently shorted VVUS whose earnings continue a downward slide. They reported bad numbers Thursday but the stock didn't move! That tells you something about this market! Pancho

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