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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16083)4/11/1998 8:42:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Jim: there are markets...and then there are markets. I made a big mistake last fall by failing to watch what the bond was doing.
Right now the bond seems to be flat, the feds don't want to do anything and are doing their darndest to maintain stability without changing interest rates. They COULD remove liquidity from the money supply to deflate the stock market....but this doesn't appear to be happening.
One thing I see to support this market is a enormous army of banks waiting to be consolidated, most of them are microcaps. The opportunity is vast here ...so many people are buying houses and remodeling them and buying new things to put in them, that the market should reflect this for the next year. I don't consider the Dow, or S&P large caps, to be a very good indicator of the US and world economy, the microcaps and ADRs are a better indicator. And right now they are screaming. The stuff pushing the market up is (1) microcap banks, (2) pension and investment house stocks including big banks, (3) microcaps espec homebuilding (4) ADRs. Interesting, yes?
I saw an ad today that showed a U.S. made cedar-sided manufactured home on a mountain slope in Japan. Would Japan buy affordable houses from the US with their money, instead of buying Dow stocks, if Japan loosened its barriers? I'm inclined to think yes.
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