Europe Will Close Broadband Gap, Report Says.
[Includes info on DT plans]
(04/11/98; 1:29 p.m. EST)
By Phil Jones, Total Telecom
techweb.com
The United States is still ahead of Europe in the provision
of broadband local access services, but the gap will narrow
later this year, according to a report by London-based
Datamonitor.
The European broadband access-services market, which
will be based primarily on digital subscriber line (DSL)
and cable modems, will grow to be worth $2 billion by
2000, Datamonitor said. The report, titled Next
Generation Internet Access: Breaking the Bandwidth
Bottleneck, will be published Tuesday.
Increased investment by cable network operators is, in
turn, spurring greater urgency among telecommunications
carriers, the report says. Europe's cable network
operators, in particular, are introducing applications that are
encouraging business and consumer customers to demand
increased bandwidth, the report says -- for example,
showing video-clip previews of films showing at local
cinemas.
Conventional carriers, such as Deutsche Telekom, are
starting to respond to this local-access threat with strategies
of their own based on DSL technology, according to the
report.
The result of the telephone companies' response will be an
explosion in demand for cable modems and DSL
equipment, said Datamonitor, which said it predicts cable
modems will have the edge over DSL in the early market.
However, growth in both technologies will be rapid.
Datamonitor said it predicts Europe's present population of
120,000 cable modems will swell to 6.8 million by 2002,
while today's 60,000 DSL lines will increase to 5.5 million
over the same period.
Cable Modems Outsell ADSL In The Consumer Market
Installed base (000s)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Consumer cable modems
15
120
600
1,500
3,500
6,800
Consumer UDSL/ADSL
5
60
400
1,200
2,600
5,500
Source: Datamonitor
Although much of the current interest in DSL is focused on
the opportunity to speed up Internet access for consumers,
Gavin Parnaby, Datamonitor analyst and author of the
report,said he expects business use to be the real focus for
carriers implementing DSL technology.
"Everyone says DSL will make a real difference to
consumers, but I see the telcos showing the most interest in
it as a business service," Parnaby said. He said he predicts
360,000 businesses across Europe will use DSL services
by 2000.
The business focus of DSL service providers will see cable
operators picking up the lion's share of consumer demand
for higher Internet-access speeds, but this may not prove to
be the most profitable option. According to Datamonitor,
though cable-modem growth will outstrip that of DSL lines,
the money will be in the business market for DSL services.
By 2000, Datamonitor said it predicts, business-oriented
DSL services will generate almost $1.3 billion in Europe,
whereas consumer services will generate just $745 million.
Service Provider Revenues From Next-Generation Access
Technologies
SP market size ($000s)
1997
1998
1999
2000
Consumer
7,260
61,527
281,199
740,069
Business
24,134
131,597
480,381
1,298,748
Source: Datamonitor
The company likely to make the most of this new service
revenue stream seems set to be Deutsche Telekom,
Parnaby said. Deutsche Telekom is already publicizing its
plans to offer new applications as well as high-speed
access before the end of the year. By comparison, the
other European carriers are "all very reticent to say what
their plans are. But they are all very aware of what's
happening in this area," Parnaby said. |
