re why hasn't DELL gone up, post split?
I think there are several reasons.
1. As Greg pointed out, there is serious concern about CPQ, IBM, INTC earnings reports.
2. The market is not sure how the 'price war' will affect DELL, Michael's comments notwithstanding.
3. DELL is trading at an historically high PE, and at a premium to most other 'boxmakers', so the market may feel that the risk:reward ratio has changed enough to make it cautious.
4. This is an historically slow quarter for the industry. If an analyst is downgrading CPQ, HWP, and IBM, he better be very sure before he upgrades one of the competition in a difficult quarter.
5. With lots of major earnings reports coming out in the next couple of weeks, the momentum boys may be concentrating capital elsewhere right now.
6. There may be tax-related selling occurring, making the market softer than normal.
7. The market may be holding its collective breath to see if the DOW can hold 9000.
8. Any fund manager who bought a chunk of DELL and has held it for two years, is probably 'overweighted'. Some may be unable or unwilling to concentrate any more of their risk in (this) one stock, and some may even be selling portions of their positions just to balance their portfolios more. As an individual investor, I am perfectly willing to concentrate my risk in this stock.
9. I think that we might have had up- or downgrades if Friday had been a normal trading week. However, with the market closed Friday and options expiration next Friday, some analysts may have felt the need to talk to their trading desks before they issued reccos. (I know, they don't do that!) You might watch for unusually heavy options trading at the opening Monday, either puts or calls.
I would suspect that all of these items play some role in the current price scenario, serving to make DELL a less compelling buy than it has previously been considered. If you recall, however, after the previous split, the price also dropped several points. Unfortunately, that provided an excuse for several bears to part with substantial chunks of change.
Hope that helps.
DELLish, 3. |
