Bank of Montreal released a special report on Y2K. The report was covered by The Globe and Mail last Saturday. The full version of it can be found at:
//www.bmo.com/economic/special/y2k.htm
Get a full copy of it. You are for a treat.
Some highlights:
They start:
'...there is no way of knowing with certainty whether crucial industries or government bodies will be ready on time.'
AH: These are sharp minds!!! I am getting curious. Go ahead!
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They find a bottom line:
'...any assessment regarding the economic impact of Y2K is crucially contingent on the underlying assumptions.'
AH: Very prudent statement.
They make a wise remark:
'A equity market correction in 1999 in response to the uncertainty created by Y2K is also possibility'.
AH: Oh, really?
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Thesis:
'In the year 2000, our call at this time is for a relatively minor economic blip in the first quarter, which should be offset very soon after.'
Main assumptions:
'...key components of government (the IRS in the US and Revenue Canada north of the border) and the financial system (central banks and the machinery of the payments system) will be Y2K compliant. IF THIS IS NOT THE CASE, ALL BETS ARE OFF(AH:bold mine)';
AH: Interesting. It looks that the authors have something to do with the gambling industry.
'..most medium- to-large sized firms have already commenced the reprogramming necessary, hence firms representing a substantial portion of the economy will be Y2K compliant in time.'
AH: The last time I saw the future so brightly, and rosy, was in my scout times.
What they can assert 'at this time with a reasonable degree of confidence':
Among others:
'Anecdotal and survey evidence suggests that most large financial and non-financial corporations should be year 2000 compliant in time'
AH: It is a matter of fact that whole computer industry is notorious for missing deadlines and going over the budget. Why the Y2K projects are going to be different? And the surveyed companies would not twist the facts a bit, eh??
'While some concern has been expressed regarding the ability of the IRS in the US to be year 2000 compliant, it is reasonable to conclude that, at the end of the day, the US government will bring the required resources to bear in solving the problem.'
AH: They don't spell it. But they count on Santa Clause on the Christmas Eve '99, I suppose.
They mentioned '...a problem with microprocessors embedded in other equipment'. Eg. fire engines in Texas 'would be unable to start January 1, 2000 due to the chips that start the vehicles' ignition.' They say chips can be fixed. Good. What about the equipment that is not checked and tested in time for whatever reason?
The problem is not only what to do with the facts we know about the Y2K compliance of our civilization, but how we can prepare for what we don't know. At least, not yet.
My call:
They call it a special report. My impression is that the only thing special about this report is amount of wishful thinking, ignorance and plain idiocy it contains.
PS. I had the occasion to see a Y2K-related presentation given by people from the Bank of Montreal in December, 97. They were ecstatic about a client server system they put together with help from IBM in 1 or 2 months that would be used for collecting information about the Y2K compliance of all the hardware and software components of their computing and communications systems. To me it sounded that they were about to get started with fixing their own Y2K problems. It seems that on another floor the bunch of Chiefs was busy cooking this Special for the public. |
