Greed...Reference coverage on IMNR--I posted this note on YAHOO. Also, the comments on the 1995 tests were in response to posting of old press releases. Come on over to YAHOO--there are some very knowledgeable posters. Go to the quotes menu, pull up the IMNR quote, then click on messages. It is free.
Just two firms actively follow IMNR. David Saks of Gruntal has a "Strong Buy" and Alan Auerbach of Seidler Co. with a "Buy." Tony Butler of Lehman has maintained a "neutral" for some time. I understand that the analysts who followed IMNR at Cruttenden and Hanifen have left, so those firms don't really follow the company.
All of the old news releases tend to muddy the waters, but there has been interesting commentary here. I have some comments
on the 1995 release regarding the FDA approval to move to Phase III testing. The fact is that the early REMUNE trials were
poorly designed. Some of the "credit" for this falls in the lap of Immune's partner at the time, Rhone Poulenc. The trial was
smaller than is typical for a Phase II--just about 100 participants vs 200 or 300. Also, reliance on the credibility of Dr. Salk in
an atmosphere of highly charged expectations for a "cure" to HIV (this credit probably goes to Wall Street), and the lack of an
independent data safety monitoring board or an independent third party heading up the study, were just some of the mistakes that were
made. Additionally, I understand that the trial was, in hindsight, structured oddly. At the start, and every three months, the
subjects gave blood samples. They received injections of REMUNE only at the start and months 3 and 6. At months 9 and 12, the
patients were not given another injection! After month 12, the data was reviewed. The first six months of data (when participants
were getting the REMUNE injections) showed improvements in surrogate markers. The blood samples taken at months 9 and 12 showed
that the improvements slid off. This was the reason for the comments about unimpressive results. This would be equivalent to
testing subjects who are taking antivirals, then stopping treatment for 6 months, and expecting the improvements to have been
sustained. In fact, recent tests show that halting of antivirals for even a few weeks can result in a viral load as high or higher than
that seen at the start of treatment.
Immune Response did learn from these early tests. The current Phase III trial is designed to be "bullet-proof." This is the
largest ever test of an immune-based therapy-- 2,500 patients at over 70 sites. The trial was designed by statistician Steve Lagokis
of Harvard and the principal investigator is Jim Kahn of UCSF--big names in HIV research. There is an independent data safety
monitoring board. While this trial has been on-going, we have seen results from many other studies testing REMUNE in various
combination therapies. The scientific community is now beginning to see the promise of REMUNE--it is the only immune based therapy to
reach this stage of testing. NO VIRUS has ever been effectively treated without involving the immune system. We have seen a 180
degree change in opinion. In the early 90s, Wall Street loved the Company, the stock ran to 62 and analysts were suggesting that
REMUNE would move the stock to $500--the scientists sat back waiting for data. Today Wall Street remembers getting burned and is
gun-shy, while doctors and researchers are becoming convinced that REMUNE offers a viable additional arrow in the quiver of
treatments. For public companies, Wall Street's perception IS reality--that is why this stock is only $10 a share.
I believe that IMNR is a buy at these levels because test results presented at conferences and in recent scientific publications indicate that REMUNE works. I also expect collaborations for Gene Therapy and RA. Once Wall Street perceives these realities, I expect to see more analysts following and recommending the stock. When this happens, I think the stock will have a substantial move higher.
ÿ |
