Michael - Re:"please share your views on the 200MHz chip shortage
I have recently heard about...."
I have heard pretty much what you have heard. Intel claims no major fab problems nor yield problems. The demand has surged and currently exceeds Intel's ability to make a rapid increase in output.
As to future earnings - If Intel sells all they can make, the Q4 earnings will be outstanding. Because they seem to be able to sell MORE than they can make, the Q4 earnings COULD have been SPECTACULAR, but won't be.
One thing we must all beware of is --FALSE demand. If Intel gears up its production lines and ramps up the volume of these fast chips, the demand may suddenly disappear in Q1/97. This is a potential replay of Q1 of this year.
Looking out a few quarters:
Intel has submitted an abstract to the ISSCC (International Solid State Circuits Committee), which is held in February detailing a 300 MHz "Klamath-type" chip.
This appears to be a "shrunken" Klamath based on a new 0.25 micron process, with ALL CMOS circuitry. Apparently, Intel has finally been able to do away with the bipolar drivers! (i.e., this will not be a BiCMOS process)
If Intel is close to ramping the new 0.25 micron process for Klamath and the Pentium MMX, I would predict that Intel's growth curve will change slope - in the upward direction.
Deploying a new and powerful and dense process at this stage of the game, at the same time as (or even before) Cyrix and AMD get their first Pentium Pro compatible chips out the door, will be a tour de force unlike anything Intel has yet produced.
I predict that they will also market a new Klamath compatible chip set capable of running at a clock speed of 100 Mhz (on the motherboard), enabling the manufacture of full blown systems "more capable of exploiting" the 300 MHz internal clock speeds of the Klamath chip.
My wild *ss guess - IFFFFF Intel were to pull this off, they will be in a position to INCREASE their market share from the 85% that they now own.
Faster chip sets, 300 MHz Klamath devices, AGP, MMX, New Fabs coming on stream, IBM back in the Intel fold, COMPAQ selling Pentium Pro Workstations, EVERYBODY Selling Pentium Pro SERVERS, (and P7/Merced slowly baking in the oven)......
Fasten your seat belts.
Paul |
