To all: A 32% drop from the "100% gain" in the past week ($4.86 to $9.19). Not uncalled for yet look for it to rise...from here.
The 3.6 million shares traded today was 93% greater than the 1.88 high trading day earlier. I think this is amazing for us and gives us much more solid footing.
Now the past week and a half has increased 61% from $4.86 to $7.8125. This same percentage increase again puts us in at $12.56. I think, remember i'm a semi novice at this, that since the big dip happened today, the price should stay on my timetable for $12 ish on 4/23. This base today should be stable for the future.
I got an earlier email today from a 2/6 post on the ASND thread where i stated the stock prices for the next 4 quarters (just for fun, yet using PE values). Despite what will happen the last 3 quarters of the year, take my prediction stating $55 on 4/16. On 1/16 the price was $36.65...went up to $44, droppped a bit to $42...went to $47, dropped agin i believe to $42 and yesterday it was at $55 or $56. I forgot about that post but it was a good reminder that using PE's do have some validity if they are used correctly AND the company is growing with stability.
If the $55 price keeps until 4/16 for ASND, the new PE will be somewhere in the ballpark of 140-150 (most likely) from the present 211. Point being, when companies are growing fast, the PE's keep dropping from their "lofty" levels. This case, 31%. I remember an article describing how Spyglass's PE was ethereal at 200. The writer was (from context) saying that a PE of 200 is out of line. Maybe he should have invested in ASND and noted that it's PE (on the high end just b4 EPS data are released) has pretty much always been greater than 150. Never mind that the stock price has increased 30.5 times it's value of about $1.80 on 6/30/94 (the quarter it was IPO'd).
ASND's PE is high because it grew 188% last year. TLTK's "new" PE at $12 will be around 40. ASND's was (on 1/16 and will again most likely on 4/16..unless the price goes up to $60) be 141. 40 to 141. Who's growing faster now? Hint, not ASND. Sure it takes time for PE's to establish themselves, yet if you are holding this for the long term, look for the base PE to keep rising from 1/23's 20 to next months 40 or so to the following quarters (7/23) 60-70. This means that 70/20= 250% gain. You have this gain automatically from getting in when the stock was "not known". If EPS go from .06,.07,.20,.40 then you know that will raise the stock to $47 ish on 7/23. Moreover, we know that the .20 is really .27 so the EPS only have to "reallly rise" from .27 to .40, or 48%.
With all the action happening within the company, this could be a very likely scenario. $47/.73 = a PE of 64.
Will this happen? Who knows. Yet if the EPS data are like that above and if it is growing very fast (even if only til the end of the year) then i see no reason why it should not play out like this. Sure there will be volatility such as today but who cares if you are in it for the long run, right? PS. The growth rise from $2.65 (when i got in) to $11.25 is the same percentage speaking as $11.25 to $47. Interesting to think about. It's percents that we care about, not the absolute amounts. Making a big deal about how $40 is so much more than $20 is futile. It's percentages that drive markets, not stock dollar amounts.
All depends obviously on what the actual EPS are the next 2 announcements but if they are .20 &.40 then $47 by mid summer is very possible. Maybe it will only reach $40...that just means that it will be cheaper for those who find TLTK then. The PE base (each new EPS data included) each 23rd announcement should rise 20 for a while until stabalization.
Sure i'm going out on a limb here but i'm just doing what a did for ASND. It doesn't really matter that they are two different companies...just look at the growth rates. As the years go by maybe i'll find a better yardstick..thsi seesm to work pretty well though.....On and Up!!!! If this does come to pass i hope we all at least think out PE ratios when looking at stocks. Course if you're in for the short term you might have other goals...yet i'm in for the long term. I don't know when the PE will slow down so i want to make sure i milk it for all its worth.
|
