Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO)

MO 58.69

+0.6%

Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (1369)	4/13/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: RWilson	Read Replies (1) of 6439

>I am not way high in my estimates. They are based on a consensus mean estimate of 21 analysts for fiscal year 98 and 15 analysts for fiscal year 99. < That is true. I am aware of IBES and ZACKS. I try and do a better job than using mean estimats because I know they include unrealistic numbers--both high and sometimes low. I prefer to seek out the top analysts on the Street with the best track records and create my own mean. I am using Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley. There are, of course many others , including 25-year MBA's with 2 years experience. I'll stick with the guys with over 10+ years. Excise taxes are a certainty. To use an estimate with none incorporated--i.e., Morgan stanley's is a little like wishful thinking. Currency exchanges are also going more negative-- None of the estimates I used incorporate any civil litigation settlements or suchlosses. They are unestimable. I don't think there is risk of bankruptcy. I think 12-15% EPS gains wih traditional dividend and share-buybacks levels are history. I simply think the risk/reward has tilted to the negative with regard to the overall return potential. MO is a dividend --yield--investment now, not a capital gains story. I certainly hope I am being sucked into the vortex of "negative" sentiment. I was a happy buyer after Cippolone and Marlboro Friday. As momentum for the settlements gained speed brokers told me I was the only investor they knew who hated the prospecs of a settlement. I am looking for a reason to buy on weakness. So far the only reason I can come up with is the amount of people who will buy on any unexpected good news. Unfortunatley, that is usually met by sellers who are looking for a "pop" tp lighten up. I am sorry, I don't recall your answer re the constitutionality of questionable laws passed by States that stripped the tobacco companies of their traditional legal defenses. I assume it was part of the "pay-off the litigation bar" strategy, as with the flight attendants settlelement. I.e., the compnaies were determined to 'grease the skids" for the national deal and didn't want to be in court with the States. Big mistake. Thanx for the reply.

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