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Non-Tech : Elaine Garzarelli
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To: Andy Nemo who wrote (74)10/31/1996 10:47:00 AM
From: Pauline Tang   of 292
 
What Elaine is predicting on is based on leading indicators that she uses. Fundamentally, all investors consider whether bond market or equity market will get the bulk of the incoming cash. So, interest rate decides whether stock market will go up or not. Traditionally, stock market consider bond market good at 7.5 to 8%. Any interest rate lower would be good for equity. So, the statement that 5% long bond will push Dow to 6500 is sound. But all that fresh cash mostly buys borrowed stocks (stocks are all already owned by someone except IPO's). The prediction of correction 15-25% of Dow based on oversold condition is correct also. But, what is missed is ofcourse rolling economy. Some stock goes down, but all stock takes turns. So, no severe down turn of Dow is expected. Elaine should take notice on the technical side based on fundamentals.
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