Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Philip Morris - A Stock For Wealth Or Poverty (MO)

MO 58.69

+0.6%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (1372)	4/13/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: RWilson	Read Replies (2) of 6439

RB: Notwithstanding your generally correct opinions about Street analysts, we are not talking about "upgrades" and/or "downgrades" here. We are gathering info and trying to assess valuation parameters. I certainly don't care about any one individual's guesswork about Minnesota outcome, or even the size and scope of any ultimate court victory. However, if you know of a better source of educated fact gatherers who spend as much time focussed on a select group of companies I'd love to hear about it. The trick is to know whose research is value-added and who are simply reporting the obvious. (Knowing the difference is how I make a living!) Anyway, I want to talk to those working the hardest and then use them for info not opinion. For example, one analayst recently told me the pricing had turned negative due to discounting. ANother told me that wasn't true, that price hikes had gone to fund State settlements but there was no price pressure beyond that. Well, that is a factual query not an opnion. One is right and one is wrong. A simple look at wholesale versus retail prices can solve that. (There is some price pressure and discounting has taken place since Jan 1.) The nature of the mistake--mnmgt. misconstrued Clinton's support and the GOP's, etc is irrelevant. They made a mistake for trusting Clinton et al. Period. Now we have to ascertain how big a blunder that was. After Marrlboro Friday Fotune magazine declared it the bluder of the decade that business schools would study for years. They were hillariously wrong. (This one may be the biggy, in my view!!) The fact is no one knows how Minnesota will go. MO lost the recent Supreme Court case re sealed documents (bad news) , jury does not require unanimous verdict , and general population is about as anti-business as anywhere in USA. The bottom line of our discussion is you think there will be multiple expansion. Can u identify a reason why the multiple will rise from a relativley high level that it is now? (IT was 8.5x EPS after MArlbopro Friday.) I think you have to show ES gains for that, or liability relief. I see neither in sight. RW

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