C-Cube Message Board - Msg: 4048991

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Technology Stocks : C-Cube

CUBE 38.70

+2.5%

Jan 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: j g cordes who wrote (32142)	4/13/1998 7:01:00 PM
From: John Rieman	Read Replies (2) of 50808

The concensus est. is $.27. This is my best guess: DVD is still a slow market. VCD chips were cut in price by 20% this Q. Encoder prices just fell, hard. Divi is huge. Revenues VCD $43M ($42.5M last Q) DVD $06M ($3.7M last Q) Divi $31M ( I can't believe how big this is! and it's close to flat with Q4.) STB $08M (down from arround $10M in Q4. Christmas, Kirch helped in Q4) Encdrs $04M (down from $6M last Q. I am surprised how small a market encoders currently have, but Divi buys some.) Total $92M ---- I have to make some assumptions about operation. Hagedorn said a 30% tax rate in 1998. That's down from 34% last year. He'll use that rate to accure taxes. He also said that margins would improve by 1% to 1.5% from 53% last Q. The number of new jobs listed in the last 6 months, and Divi's new office, makes me think that operating costs will be up. I added $1M, or a 3% increase. Revenue $92M (54.5% gross margins) COG 41.9 ---- Gross 50.1 R&D 16.9 SG&A 14.2 ---- operating 19 other (.2) ----- Taxable 18.8 Tax 5.64 Net $13.16M 42M shares 31.3 cents per share. 4 cents better than expected. A lower share count would help, but how would that happen? More sales are possible in VCD, Divi, and DVD, in that order. It won't take much to have 32 cents per share.

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