To the "thread,"
Well, I am back from my mini-vacation and reading various threads, notes, and emails.
For what it is worth, Furman Selz updated on TFS this morning, indicating some "disappointment" with first quarter revenues despite hitting the earnings number. Cihra lowered his earnings estimate to $.95 for 1998 (being in my range for the year as of last Thursday), and keeping his estimate for 1999 at $1.60 per share.
I have had some time to think about the conference call, and can note again that it was the best organized call since I have been "listening", with substantial information content and a greater degree of forthrightness.
On the other hand, it looks like the second quarter earnings will be about $.17-$.18 per share, considerably below *all* the previously outstanding estimates. Despite the clearer pathway that has been laid out by management, it is apparent that we have lost another quarter's earnings progress.
I guess that is why they call this "long-term" investing. Quarter one wasn't a disaster, but sales were weak. Quarter two sales should be up considerably, but margins will be weak. For the rest of 1998, it looks like a margin recovery, though it is certainly doubtful that margins will get to the first quarter levels again anytime soon.
I can't wait for the day when we are moving forward with *all* cylinders.
Again, to the manager's of TFS that read this "thread," it was a *great* conference call, even though a portion of the information given was disappointing. The effort that went into the preparation was telling, and whoever laid the groundwork is entitled to extra kudos.
Congratulations on a job well done. |
