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To: yard_man who wrote (544)	4/14/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (2) of 686

Barry, Yes, timing... It MUST be this year. IMO 3 possible scenarios: 1. Top was April 6th. 2. Another run to Dow 9500 - 9800 topping around end of May. 3. An amazing spike to 11000 - 11500 topping in the 4th Q. Then, very similar to '29, crash time is somewhere between 5-8 weeks after the top, with agragate loss of 40-50% from the top. The recovery takes a few months, but is very far from the previous high, and 2-3 years of severe bear market grinds the Dow down to anywhere between 800 and 2500. If you think a correction to 6000 is enough, let me state my mind that it's only the trigger for a major recession. Why must it be in 1998? 1. The pace of this bull market is unsustainable. 2. Millennium Bug panic is timed to start spreading now (2nd Q '98) flowrishing from 4th Q '98 until 4th Q '99. The stock market will then face such a great uncertainity that will kill any bull. ATG

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