Well, this thread has quieted down but the MF one keeps raging on with discussions of Rugrats, earnings, et al. EdgeDirect, a canny trader, says the TA looks good. And with permission, here's a post on earnings:
Subject: MY 1Q ESTIMATE
Date: Mon, Apr 13, 1998 7:25 PM
From: Gofrank150
Message-id: <1998041402255101.WAA03494@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Here is my first quarter estimate. If anyone sees anything obvious I have overlooked, let me know:
Part I - Sales:
NWO - 400000 @ 47.5 = $19,000,000 ( I didn't think THQ has shipped 500,000 yet. Or at least they havent sold through, or we would likely have heard it announced as a 1,000,000 unit seller by now).
Nitro - 410,000 @ $36 = $14,760,000 (I could be low on this one. My gut feel is this one sold really well in the beginning but has tailed off some).
Broken Sword - 30,000 @ $36 = $1,080,000 (I am beginning to wonder if THQ didnt just ship this to software stores and held off shipments to TRU / Best Buy, etc until q2. If they did, that would be most bullish, huh?)
Pax Mac - 10000 @ $37 = $370,000
Ray Tracers - 60000 @ $36 = $2,160,000
NBA Live SNES - 30000 @ $27 = 810,000 (maybe a little conservative here too)
NWO Europe - 25000 @ $48 = $1,200,000 (really guessing here. know its shipping this quarter - stated in 10k)
K1 Europe - 20000 @ $36 = $720,000 (also stated as finally shipping in q1 in 10k)
Misc Reorders / Gameboy, etc = $1,390,000 (VERY conservative here - not certain of many reorders)
TOTAL SALES ESTIMATE = $41,490,000
Part II - The Rest of the Income Statement:
Net Sales 41,490,000
Costs & Expenses
Cost of Sales 50.00% $20,745,000 (down 2 pts from 4q, nitro = cd = cheaper than nwo carts)
Royalties 18.40% $7,634,100 (up 1.5 pts from 4q - said in q4 royalties would increase)
Product Development $600,000 (rough guess from previous quarters)
Project Abandonment $130,000 ( "")
Selling 9.80% $4,066,020 (up from 9.2% in q4)
General & Admin $2,000,000 (just slightly less than q4)
Operating Interest $50,000 (same as q4)
Income from ops $6,264,820 (15% operating margin - slightly less than q4)
Interest Income 140,000 (was 135k in 4q)
Income before taxes $6,404,820
taxes (31%) $1,985,494 (bet it doesnt quite get to 33% this quarter)
NET INCOME $4,419,326
EPS $.59 (BASED ON 7.5 MILLION SHARES)
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As you look through this, i think you will see i am pretty conservative. My only big worry is that Nitro didn't sell as many units as I expected. Would love to see the Mar TRSTS numbers.
Chris
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Any comments? Todd?
Regards,
Marc |
