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Gold/Mining/Energy : Royal Oak-RYO

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To: Bill Jackson who wrote (909)4/14/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: Thomas P. Talbot  Read Replies (2) of 1706
 
The question is what is Kemess worth if it operates as advertised or close to it. Probably north of 300 million. So there is 120 million against it versus 44 million. Further, approval of the loan will get the mine operating which will increase its value from a non operating asset to an operating asset by more than likely an amount greater than the increase in senior secured debt. Thus, the subords improve their position by approving the loan. The subords will have to wait and receive no interest if they force the issue. Also they will still be under the 44 million seniors if they do not and the mine will be worth much less than if operating. In a reorg there is always the chance they'll get pennies on the dollar/ no one knows how a judge will rule. The subords were an "institutional deal" and Bankers Trust does not want to see it fail or the legal problems could be terrible. I would say RYO is in a good positon. G. Eacott, of Investor Relations, did not, today, sound at all concerned about the deal being consummated. In the past when he has exuded this attitude the situation has always come about as he indicated. When you really think about it it is in the subords best economic interests to do the deal IMHO, based on the facts as are apparent.
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