Patrick,
My position as I indicated is different than yours only in the size of the pullback but the timing is very close.
As for the size of the pullback, I am getting hints that the pullback will take the form of a rounding top, and am surmizing that it will at a series of small down cycles before the bigger one occurs. In this series, I believe we have already completed 2 down cycles, and could have as many as 3 more to go before the bigger one which may occur in MAY.
As for the timing I am using my short-term technicals to approximate the time. The majority of the indexes have just entered the overbought region/borderline. In light of the strength of this market I am making the assumption that if we have 1-2 more up/flat days the technicals will get to CLASS SELL status. The pullbback could start as soon as tomorrow, but I am more comfortable with Thursday intraday being the last up bias. Once the down cycle begins I am estimating that it should last 2-4 days based on cycle analysis. Such cycle analysis does not just consider simple charts but is more complicated since it strongly considers cycles in the actual indicators regarless of price fluctuations. So lets say it really starts Friday, then it could last as long as next Wed. Regardless, Monday is down since it will fall into the cycle pattern.
I realize that it is hard for many to understand, especially in light of today's strong performance, but one way to look at it is, the faster it moves up the faster we get to CLASS SELL status.
Seeya |
