Bleeker,
I think you are being conservative. From the last conference call, Farrell indicated that Nitro had as good a release as NWO, despite your observation that it was in a weaker period. Add in big-time NWO reorders and some fairly conservative guesses about the other amounts, and it seems to me that Chris could be in the ballpark. The March PC Data info just confirms that THQ is doing very, very well right now. NWO is unbelievably solid and Nitro managed to stay in the top ten.
My guess is still around .50, FWIW. I think that THQ used to be careful and would manage expectations so that they could always beat estimates by a penny or two. And last fall beating it by four cents seemed like a blowout. But the wrestling games are flat out selling like crazy and there's no way Farrell can hide all that cash. Plus, the Fool board has spotted tons of Wrestling product showing up on the shelves at the end of March. So THQ has whatever latitude it wants to count them as having shipped (minus reserves). If THQ has moved into the top five in both units sold and dollar volume, is it really beyond reason to think that the co. can make a hair under $4 million?
<<Are those units shipped or estimates based on a survey that the poster conducted?>>
His best guess at units shipped, based on past results, with a bit of educated guessing as to Broken Sword, etc. I believe Chris tried to be conservative on reorders in the back catalog, etc. to reflect seasonal weakness. Remember that there is a bigger installed base now and we might be seeing better Q1s than we think, from companies that have the right games out.
What do you think the odds of a split are, Bleeker?
Btw, good call on the Eidos. I'm still holding half my position as a nod towards diversity in the sector.
Remember, it isn't the book value, it's the dividend . . .
Regards,
Marc |
