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Strategies & Market Trends : Lizard King's Trading Swamp

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To: Paul Viapiano who wrote (6042)4/15/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: Craig  Read Replies (1) of 7396
 
Re: PCTY short

At work, so working off memory. Three reasons.
1. Looking for hedge against market. Therefore wanted stock that was overextended and has had a big recent runup. I have a stock database that I review every night of 100+ stocks. It is built from MPT reviews list of 400+ stocks. PCTY was on that list.

2. I have had great success this year using Joe DiNapoli's method of trading which includes using Fibonacci ratios and patterns. PCTY showed a patterned that indicated a possible change in trend using this directional indicator. This pattern uses a displaced moving avg. 3x3. (for those who are familiar, a Double Repo).

3. One of my favorite indicators is OBV. Lay it over the price graph of a stock and you have a good indication of strength. PCTY is very strongly diverging between price and OBV. I my opinion, if PCTY goes down, it will go down quickly with little immediate support.

That is why I shorted. Could I be wrong, you betcha. I will exit my trade if PCTY closes to a new high or at a predetermined profit level. It is a tough market to short in, so odds are not in my favor. But this trade is part of a diversified portfolio of stocks with equal amounts invested, plus I am still heavy to cash.
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