Following is a post that appeared today on Yahoo's chat board on CCSI (THIS POST WAS NOT DONE BY ME, BUT BY SOMEONE ELSE with the handle, USInvestor_1):
Something big is about to happen to CCSI. Boards have been quiet as both shorts & longs have tired of posting. Market dynamics determine the ticks up & down with a little MM manipulation to keep tick traders interested.
This is where I see the status of CCSI...
* July 1997, FDA approval for Colormate infant bilirubin test. This is a device for non-invasive detection and monitoring of bilirubin infant jaundice.
* September 1997, CCSI announces analysis of existing market for newborn bilirubin testing at just over $1 billion. Many have estimated that CCSI's estimate is too conservative, and the actual market will exceed $1 billion. There have also been those who believe no or little market exists, but have been unable to provide support.
* December 1997, Fredrick Frank, Vice Chairman of Lehman Brothers retained to provide business consulting services on an exclusive basis. Initial focus will provide assistance on negotiations related to the company's business plan and agreements for global distribution of the Colormate infant bilirubin test.
* December 1997, Dr. Ian Holzman, chief, division of newborn medicine at Mt. Sinai Hospital in New York City, joins CCSIs medical advisory board.
* December 1997, Dr. M. Jeffrey Maisels, chairman, dept. of pediatrics, William Beaumont Hospital, clinical professor of pediatrics, University of Michigan Medical School, joins CCSI's medical advisory board. Dr. Maisels is an internationally recognized medical expert in Bilirubin infant jaundice.
* February 1998, 3:2 stock split to create additional trading liquidity in advance of global distribution agreement deal.
* March 1998, Avalon Reseach makes sell recommendation on CCSI. The amount of due diligence performec has been questioned to the Analyst's failure to talk to the company prior to issuing the report.
* March 1998, CCSI announced they will introduce hand-held device and new console model of the Colormate product at the 1998 Pediatric Academic Societies' Annual International Exposition in New Orleans May 1-5, 1998. Dr. Ian Holzman and Dr. Jeffrey Maisels will present for CCSI.
* March 1998 received notice from American Medical Association permitting 3rd party insurance reimbursement in all U.S. states for use of the Colormate product.
* March 1998 announced completion of studies for new medical application of the Colormate product. The application will determine the level of phototherapy treatment to be used in treating numerous skin disorders and diseases and the patient's tolerance to such phototherapy treatment by quantifying the amount of pigmentation and hence, photo-protection in the skin of patients. Pending IRB approval, clinical trial will be held at Mt. Sinai Hospital in New York City.
* April 1998, Market Trim Tabs (Charles Biderman) issues buy recommendation on CCSI based upon potential market for the bilirubin test device. The buy recommendation did not include the potential for revenues from other potential markets, including dental and skin diseases which have commenced clinical trials at Mt. Sinai Hospital in New York.
* April 1998, SpectRx began shipping BiliCheck to international distributors. BiliCheck uses a different type of technology to measure the level of bilirubin infant jaundice, which has not been approved by the FDA for sale in the U.S. There is debate whether or not SpectRx is a competitor to CCSI, as well as the ability of SpectRx's product to work under phototherapy lights and if it will work with all races. Nevertheless, this is evidence that a market exists for CCSI's Colormate product.
CCSI has about 14MM shares outstandings, with 8.7MM share float. Although some large investors in the float are not actively trading, thus the "true" float is somewhat lower. As of March 31, 1998, short interest is just under 2MM shares.
I expect CCSI to announce a global distribution deal prior to the May 1 Pediatric Academic Societies' Annual International
Exposition in New Orleans. I also expect this global distribution deal to exceed most of the optimistic expectations. I believe the
evidence exists of a market, the size of which will not be fully known for a few years. So long as a percentage of babies continue to
be born with bilirubin infant jaundice, the market for an alternative to the heal prick will continue. I am not so naive to
believe CCSI will not ever have real competition, they will. However, CCSI is about to be the first in the marketplace to distribute
an FDA approved, cost effective device, approved for insurance reimbursements, non invasive device to monitor the level of
bilirubin infant jaundice.
There are two unknows with CCSI - 1) financial impact to CCSI of the Colormate product to measure the level of bilirubin infant jaundice, and 2) other potential markets for the Colormate process. There have been many estimates of EPS to CCSI, but this will not be confirmed until about 6 to 12 months after a global distribution agreement is announced. However, at the date of announcement, I think most will have a good idea of the potential.
I am long CCSI with a 3 year horizon after announcement of the global distribution agreement. I expect a strong runup due to confirmation of expectations. In addition, the large short interest compared to the small float (true float is even lower), has positioned this to be a classic short squeeze.
AND MY REPLY TO HIS POST...
USInvestor_1...nice summary, thanks for posting it. I also agree with your last comment re the short squeeze that's just around the corner...it's incredible to me why anyone at this point in time would maintain a large short position on CCSI...the company, others here and on other chat boards, and the latest research which was written by someone who has a recognized reputation for credibility, all have telegraphed what is coming; that a short would still believe that this is all just a fairy tale, is going to learn a very hard lesson. As I write this the volume on CCSI is 49,800...and to think that there are 1.8 million shares outstanding that are short...wait a second while I wipe up my saliva...lol |
