Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Sparkle who wrote (16505)	4/15/1998 3:11:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Hi Sparkle; Writing the puts on the right ones is is a favoret of mine, short term ones..as it ties up capital. Sometimes writing a covered call appeals to me over just selling a winner. As for the bear fund BEARX if you can get it via your broker, but only in down market..as it don't do anything in up market I've not jumped in yet.. I got to see more down indicators than the hocas pocas of a chart ..or TA of an index..which I termed insane a long time ago. The Dow isn't even weighted TAing it can't be done. You get some pip squeck that goes up in price a lot on small volume it can make the Dow go up, while the heavey hitters are selling off an inch at at time on major volume, or the reverse..in short TA on an index can't tell what the actual cash flow is in that index..so you don't know if the index is lying or not..the bigger drops come after the majors sell off inch by inch for a while as the index is being pushed up by the minors , then after the minors stall and start down she showes her true colors..so to tell anthing about an index you have to seperate the majors from the minors.. and look inside of it. A lot of the time an index is a trailing indicator of what the cash flow has done..why do people try to predict a trailing indicator, when they never look to see if how far it might be trailing ? Look at the market cap of GE vs UK ..now they are both DOW and a $2 change in either one effect the index just as much as the other one..like all things equal UK goes up $2 and GE down $2 ( with no other change ) the index will stay flat. BUT you can bet that $2 down on GE means a lot lot more money just went out of the DOW than came in on UK..and you can bet on that..let that happen several days, and the index is telling you one big lie. ------------------- There was plenty of waring last OCT if people looked at the MEGA caps in AUG..the MEGAs will sell down before any big blow off, they are not yet really doing that. --------------- Jim

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