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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: RWS who wrote (16511)4/15/1998 4:33:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
RWS ---- Buffet's Silver

Here are a number of reasons for Buffet's purchase:
1] undervalued commodity -- slack between mine production and demand
2] commercial use of silver is expanding within the high-tech arena
3] new batteries are being developed that use silver and can be
recharged to full capacity in 30 minutes...new cars, etc
4] hedge for his holdings, against the instablity of world currencies
5] new euro-$ will be backed by a basket of commodities(including silver)
to give some measure of substance to the euro's value
6] he's a miser

Most Interesting part of the transaction is the fact he took physical
delivery and did not lease the commodity. 1-2-3 would not require delivery
to carry out a position and also less expensive.

This leaves us with 4-5-6....my preferance is #4....I think he hedged
his holdings with something solid and felt silver was a better value then
gold. He took delivery as a hard asset and is willing to pay the fees
to maintain his position. Coupled with this...is the purchase by Sorros of
a Mexican Silver mine not to long ago as well as his significant holdings
in Seven Seas Petroleum established a while back.

It is very possible they know something the rest of us do not yet
understand about the worlds unstable system of currencies.
I believe it will take a significant event to scare the money out of
these markets. Until this occurs and creates fear...the bull will
continue. Currency crisis would be a big key to unlock that trunk.

Floated Currencies are highly unstable....as we have seen. Rubin a few
weeks back on the Jim Leher show...and I quote" ...We are in uncharted
waters when it comes to dealing with the enormity of Japan's and
Asias's currency crisis."

As for #5....Thatcher and Sir Alan Walters wanted a solid base to
the EMU and Euro before Britan would sign on....one of the proposals was
system of commodity back pledges, which included silver and oil. If the
euro$ is weak...they may have to prop it up with some sound basis and
compete against the dollar in that manner.
This would be administered by something like a currency board as recently
proposed for Indonesia and in place in Argentina.
Anyway...interesting **Stuff**
Chip
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