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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 268.92

+0.1%

2:13 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (18828)	4/15/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Paul V, The AMAT classic UP-staircase pattern (5 or more days advance forming the riser and 4 days of decline or consolidation forming the tiptoe-step) is being seen in the DOW 30. That's fine since that average usually leads the over-all market advance...INTC should follow, so we should monitor the stock closely. Three to six months after INTC begins its run Up, we should see AMAT following UP to Wrap-Up the Market's Bull move...AMAT should close strongly for the year at around 60, make a recoil point at 63 then springs Up to the 100s. In Aug 1999, when the company begins posting record earnings, we should see the Market consolidate then decline to finalize the second half of the Cycle... That scenario is based on the Past...One thing we should be aware of is that there are changes that may hasten the move Up:--- We may have noticed that the Analysts, while downgrading AMAT are now reluctant to issue Sell signals. As Internet Investing by the small and individual investor becomes more popular (many are now converting their Mutual Funds into self directed Brokerage accounts), we should see the popularity of said Analysts diminished greatly. The Analysts and their clients are following the lead of the small and individual investor --- they buy on Dips (why wait for the 20s and risk being left behind when we could reach the 100s later anyway)...Have you noticed that in this thread, whenever the Bears ( I define them as Bulls that for some reason sold their shares then want to buy them back at lower prices ) speak loud about AMAT sliding to the 20s, the stock slides down a bit then heads Up?.. When we see Tech companies upon Tech companies issuing dismal earnings yet their stocks go Up ---what is the Market telling us?...

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