Dave / Probe Exploration
Comments at Kerm's Korner March 23, 1998 (GORDON CAPITAL)
Probe Exploration (PRX-T: $5.00) STRONG BUY
Reserve Report Confirms Success At LeducProven and risked probable reserves, measured at year-end 1997, were 37.0 mmboes vs. 16.7 mmboes in 1996 - well ahead of the 28 mmboes we had been forecasting.
Between July 31, 1997 and December 31, 1997, Probe increased the reserves attributed to the assets acquired at Leduc from 2 mmboes to 16.8 mmboes.
Over the same period, production from these assets was increased from 1,900 boe/d to over 8,000 boe/d. Currently, Probe's firm wide production is over 11,000 boe/d.
Given the recent successes experienced year-to-date in the Wabamum, Nisku and Sparky formations, we estimate that Probe may already have added an incremental 5-10 mmboes of reserves. Medium and heavy oil reserves represented less than 16% of Probe's overall reserve base, with light oil representing 38%, and natural gas and NGL's representing 46%.
Based on the new reserve report, our estimated NAVPS is now $4.00 up from $2.80. Probe will release its year-end 1997 financial results in 2 - 3 weeks time.
We reiterate our STRONG BUY recommendation on Probe with a 12-month stock price target of $8.00. |
