Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI) OIL Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI) OIL

CWEI 131.90

0.0%

Apr 25 5:00 PM EST

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To: Kendell Phillips who wrote (5)	11/1/1996 1:06:00 AM
From: Kendell Phillips	of 1017

I performed a rudimentary technical analysis of CWEI. I used excel and a provester report. Conclusions and Findings Historically CWEI is trading at an average 13.4 PE. Industry average PE 30 (AOL First Call) CWEI has never had 4 continuous postive quarterly earnings until the next quarter. Out of 10 mill auth shares 8.6 will be out after new offering. Leaves small (<15%) dilution potential. Using 1.21 consensus annual eps Target Price: $16 Using KP estimate (.19+.32+.45+.40) = 1.36 target price = $18 IF CWEI can get good visibility, Price could go as high as $40.? ( A few good things would have to happen) This is takes into account new 1.2 mill offering. Other positives: Average price for oil was 21.49/brl currently dec contract is at 24.40 (14% gain) Linear relation to revenues = $2 million increase which would be approx.66% increase in profits( I wished for this to be true) More Operating Income this quarter (more exploration?) Reduced some debt in 2nd quarter.($8 Mill. ~20%) Every analyst says oil prices are not coming down anytime soon. Correlation between quart earning report dates and 15-20% drop in stock price shortly there after?(last 2 quarters). (short term trader run ups and dips). The ? is: How many institutions selling? we will know around first of DEC. This is one analyst's opinions please make perform your own analysis.

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