Intel Trader,
IMHO, your analysis seems reasonable.
The only parts that puzzle me are:
1) If yesterday was unsubstantiated rumor, why
was it SO STRONG? I guess maybe there are
enough shorts climbed on that maybe I don't
realize?
So, maybe there's some truth to what's been
claimed. It won't be completely proven until
earnings - which I think is in May(?).
As I mentioned in another post, it seems like we
get some good news, and then some worry-making
kind of news. I think this is the pattern. And
the challenge is to figure out how much good
potential this company has for the future. It's
a judgment call.
I'm betting that bandwidth problem is significant
enough that it needs to be addressed quickly. That's
CIEN's edge. If it has to wait a few years for
demand to increase, their edge might disappear....
But, even so, they will be a good acquisition for
somebody...
I guess I'm betting long-term (1 year or so). Short
term, how can anybody predict?
2) Yes, "the reining in can happen at any time", but
I'm betting that the massive liquidity produced
by the baby boomers, and higher productivity results
from better technology, will stay the course for
a while. This among other variables (future inflation,
low interest rates,....) will keep this bull market
flowing with regular bumps in the road.
So, I see more upside potential than downside to
worry about.
Just have to be abreast of the trends in case one
has to make changes. Have to keep flexible...
Have to anticipate well up to a degree so that
things don't suddenly blow-up in our face.
3) Yes, probably "CIEN is a flea in the camel's armpit",
but I think they will be smart enough to side with
good allies to get help - and allies which will
need CIEN just as much as CIEN may need them down
the bumps in the future.
4) I do get the sense that their technology is sound
enough for the next few years - but you never know.
I'm betting that their good enough to set the
direction and standard in their field.
OK, anybody - tear it apart. I want to know why
I'm going to lose all my money on CIEN :-)
Joe
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