RW: You've painted the worst possible scenario for the tobacco industry. Fortunately, this scenario is presently priced in the share price of MO. All questions concerning the growth of MO's domestic tobacco business will ultimately depend on the nature of a possible settlement and future litigation.
The chances of your doomsday scenario becoming realized are extremely slim. I give it at best a 5% chance of coming true. The more likely scenario boils down to one of two things: 1) Congress and Clinton wise up here and realize something is better than nothing and take the cash that is on the table and give the tobacco industry liability protection. As June approaches, this money will become paramount and principles will go out the window. In the end in American society when all is said and done, it is all about MONEY. 2) Congress and Clinton can't get their act together and nothing gets accomplished, including a vote to increase the tax on cigarettes. As you know, Salomon- Smith Barney and CS First Boston, along with many other brokerages hold this view. That is why they continue to reiterate Buy on MO.
Why are you so obsessed with Kessler? He has very little or no impact here and he is a Clinton puppet. He will keep his mouth shut if Clinton gives the order.
The settlement, if there is one, may not be what you would like, based on your own principles and views of what the tobacco industry should have done, but it will be sufficient to propel the shares of MO significantly higher. And to be honest, that is basically what I'm interested in. The Mcain bill, as the chairman of the House Commerce Committee said, is, if not already "dead, on life support". There will be plenty of other bills over the next 6 weeks to analyze. I expect them to be friendlier to MO's share price.
PS. Your spelling is terrible. Why don't you check it? |
