William:
There is a dichotomy in my investment style. While, I am basically a short term trader, I do keep a very watchful eye on the intermediate term. Consequently, I sometimes maintain a trading and a core position in a stock. Nextel has been one of those stocks. In the recent past, I have agreed with Arnie's assessment that Nextel had a good shot at 400,000 add ons for the quarter. Had that proved out, nextel would have easily have moved to the 35 to 36 range. I found a good deal of support for this assessment in the daily trading patterns that had been developing for the past 6 weeks or so. I differred with Al's worry over the large amount of long term debt. If nextel had gained the momentum that I was expecting, the debt would have been glossed over. Al's concern was correct, the 400,000 add ons fell short, and initially the stock started to run. The stampede ran out of gas and the hot money exited. Reviewing the quarterly report, the debt was a standout, as was the amount of time required for nextel to be cash positive. We all made money, not as much as envisioned, at least for the short term.
We are living in a very unforgiving market, primarily because of the very high valuations. The computer makers at the moment seem to be defying gravity, however, when they run out of steam they may well start a correction.
Ken |
