Predicting a Breakup abcnews.com
Had to go check up on formerly reliable conduit Fred Moody, and came up with this moderately curious piece. The superscript is Metastasizing Microsoft , which is appropriate. On the general issue of breakup, something I don't predict, I'd just hope the mistake of the AT&T split wouldn't get repeated, where a bunch of smaller, equally entrenched monopolies are spawned. Anyway, here's the breakup Fred sees:
The answer is simple, ingenious, and, when Gates goes through with it, sure to produce far more ferocious torrents of outrage than its de facto monopoly does now. Gates figures within two or three years to break his company up into at least three and possibly as many as six different companies: Microsoft Operating Systems, Microsoft Applications and Microsoft Media for sure, and possibly BIOS, consumer products and communications companies as well.
Microsoft BIOS? Yawn. Microsoft Media? To handle the ever morphing, money losing MSN that Fred's so fond of in its current incarnation? Anyway, a split might be a good thing, but unless the children were linked under the covers, or still each and all run by Bill, there'd have to be some diminution of Bill's personal control, which is what makes it all seem bit unlikely.
Bill's No Dummy
Of all the things that have been said about Gates over the years, you never hear it said that he is dumb. A properly fearful or reverent conspiracy theorist can look at the company's recent history, during which Gates appointed three executives to Microsoft's Office of the President, as a first step toward breakup of the company. If he is doing his job properly, he is grooming these executives to head up his new companies, and is already laying the groundwork for spinning divisions off.
The most amusing part of this scenario, of course, will be the howls of outrage attending Gates' gambit. The same people who have been calling for years for the breakup of Microsoft will now be screaming at the government to prevent it. Call me crazy, if you will (and you will), but please remember, when the Microsoft-breakup news breaks, where you read it first.
Ok, Fred Moody is crazy. I don't think Bill Gates is a dummy, of course. Except maybe in the legal self-representation sense. I've said in the past a voluntary AT&T style breakup might be good for Microsoft, if Bill saw fit, so I might even claim priority. But unless Bill is the actor of the century, it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Unless maybe some really hard knocks come down from the courts quickly, also somewhat unlikely. And if it does happen, I think it's preposterous to say people calling for breakup now will be running to the government to prevent it. Well, maybe one or two of them. We'll see.
Cheers, Dan. |
