Ramsey, far be it from me to predict what a floating yen's consequences might be--I tend to get a bit queasy when it's the world's 2nd largest economy that's muddying around in the dumpster.
However, Barton Biggs from Morgan Stanley who has a mighty big reputation for things Asian/Financial suggested at the beginning of the year in a Barron's Roundtable session, that Japan was passing in to 2nd class citizenry status. I thought I posted his comments on this thread, but maybe elsewhere.
In any event, his thesis was simply that China, Korean, Taiwan were going to eat Japan's sushi cause they had superior economic models, and specifically were showing signs of development beyond the mercantilist, export your ass off and the hell with the domestic economy.
His comments are starting to look prescient at this juncture, and Japan's pathetic attempts to stimulate their own economy refelect their skewed mentality. As does their "successful" effort to erect trade barriers to defend their island economy. I only hope that if they are to slip, that their reserves are adequate to permit the slip to be a gradual one rather than free fall. One thing's for sure: China, Korea, et. al. are not going to sit patiently by waiting for Japan to smell the coffee.
In this regard, CDMA's recent stunning progress in China may be even more important than we think. If the Q were to snag Mexico, wouldn't Europe start to feel surrounded? Is it too much to hope that the Philips/Lucent licensing refelects a similar read? G* starts service in "early" '99 which ain't that far away. Just went through their annual report, and I firmly believe that CDMA is going to get another booster (globally) throughout the year. Bernard Schwartz had some very nice comments about the Q in that report, including "there is no longer any doubt about CDMA".
I dunno, probably been reading too many JL(florid)F posts, but the straws in the wind sure are looking good. Mike Doyle |
