Hi Rainier, I hear what you're saying, and can appreciate your views, but I have an underlying strategy here that is based on swing trading strong stocks that have shown clear pivot tendencies and clear abilities to move swiftly in both directions, with dollars not percent as the goal (in other words, significant peak to trough swing amounts). It also has industry group and broad market factors taken into consideration (but not in as quantitative a way as I'd like). I haven't done it enough to say with confidence that it works consistently, but so far so good. If a person believes the Bollinger band concept, then they ought to also believe this method has merit, except I'm trading the opposite end of the Bollinger spectrum (reverting DOWN TO the mean from the upper band, rather than UP TO the upper channel from the mean as most people use them). That's just an analogy...it's not exactly what I'm looking at, but that's the idea.
It is by no means implying I think these stocks will tank....these are excellent companies. Tremendous, in fact. But as someone once said, "We're here to make money, not fall in love. Even the darlings have their 'unloved' days."
Check the recent swings on SYNT, MAST, CBSL, LHSG, BAANF for example. Some pretty good profit opportunities in both directions. Also note IMRS. It has the group commonality and also the recent strength, but I wouldn't touch it with this method because in doesn't (yet) have those swings. Maybe you're right and I'm a fool for trying this, but I guess for now anyway, I'm believing it has merit, and I probably won't become a disbeliever until I can look at a year (or so) worth of trades using this. Since I'm experimenting though, I'm not risking very large portions of my portfolio.
dh
P.S. CKR does look pretty good using a more conventional short selection approach, but it would be more of a "hang with it" short as opposed to having your finger on the trigger for the whole ride.
P.S.S. I suspect there'll be a similar play on internet stocks some point this year.
P.S.S.S Actually, I'd have been kind of disappointed if someone didn't say I was nuts for shorting some of those. Maybe I'm getting a little carried away with my motto of "gotta be different than the market to beat the market." |
