Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 115.18

-7.7%

Jan 23 9:30 AM EST

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To: Armand Perez who wrote (3821)	4/16/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: REH	Read Replies (3) of 93625

So you think deferred revenues are not certain? Please xplain what you think deferred revenues are? Then look back at my earlier post and see what I wrote, please don't mis-quote me, here's what I wrote: "In 1999 the semiconductor market will be about 80 billion, 10% market-share for Rambus would give Rambus a royalty of 120 million (based on 1.5% royalty). If we deduct 20% for G&A and R&D and 40% tax this should give Rambus an EPS of $ 2.16. Under this scenario stock price would be (relative to P/E): P/E 30: $ 65.00 P/E 40: $ 86.00 P/E 50: $ 108.00 Historical P/E's: Low: 333 High: 940 At a P/E of 130 (less than half the low to date) the stock price would be $ 281.00!!!! Let's say Rambus gets a 30% market-share in 2001 (and the semiconductor market in 2001 will be about 125 billion), then the numbers would look very impressive: EPS (same variables as first example): $ 10.80 P/E 30: $ 324.00 P/E 40: $ 432.00 P/E 50: $ 540.00 At a P/E of 130 the stock price would be 1,404.00!!!!" I'm a retired computer executive that sits on the board of 6 computer companies in Europe and the US, none of which I comment on. My purpose is to analyse the information I get and share my thoughts with this thread - what's yours? I do not think your nincompoops even though I find your latest post somewhat ignorant. And yes, I agree on your last point - glad you see mine. However, the market does not see it and the stock-price reflects this. I look forward to your explanation of deferred revenues based on US accounting standards! reh

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