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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.75+3.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: lanac who wrote (53685)4/16/1998 7:36:00 PM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Paul, re: Celeron
I wasn't referring to Q1 Pentium shipments through a specific channel, but total Pentium shipments that would eventually need to be replaced by Celeron.
I calculate that in Q1 Intel shipped at least 12M Pentium units out of ~20M total units shipped. I derived this from total CPU revenues, ASP as reported by MicroDesign Resources, and Q1 chip prices. Intel also reported that the $1200 system was the "Sweet Spot" for unit volume. I assume that Pentium was the device in systems =<$1200.
Intel reported that all new wafer starts are now P6, and that this month P6 will exceed 50% of total units shipped. Celeron falls into the P6 category of devices.
Once inventory and WIP of Pentiums is shipped Celeron must be the replacement.
The PII/333/350/400 are targeted at systems >$1200. (From Intel's Roadmap).
Therefor I deduct that Celeron will eventually have to replace Pentium in those systems <$1200. This is not channel specific, but includes everything, even business computers.
To me, all of this indicates that 50% of systems shipped this year will be priced =<$1200, and therefor Celeron, (Covington and Mendocino), will need to be around 50% of total units shipped when Pentium is phased out. Further system price erosion will exacerbate this situation.
I think the success of Celeron is very important to the business plan.
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