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Gold/Mining/Energy : Arconenergy, Inc. (Long Term Investors and Fundamentals)
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To: Ga Bard who wrote (773)4/16/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: Kurt N  Read Replies (1) of 1757
 
How's them meat&potatoes????

Forward looking earnings:

EPS per plant: $7 million / ~29 million shares = .241

Using extremely conservative numbers, let's say eps is 65% of the above gives .157.
plant
time (years) plants in operation plant-years earnings/year earnings price (P/E 8)
------------ ------------------- ----------- ------------- --------
0.5 1 .5 .157 .0785
1.0 2 1 .157 .157
=====================================================================
year 1 .236 1.89

1.5 4 2 .157 .314
2.0 7 3.5 .157 .55
=====================================================================
year 2 .864 6.91

2.5 11 5.5 .157 .864
3.0 16 8 .157 1.256
======================================================================
year 3 2.12 16.96

Of course with earnings growth like this, this will command a
higher P/E than 8 after the first year. Plants could be built
much quicker. Earnings could be at or exceed the estimate
(eps increase by 30+%)

A price of $17 at the end of 3 years (assuming the estimate
is right). Wow! All my other stocks could go to zero and
I'd still be up 200+%.

[edit: Can somebody produce more aggressive numbers. The possibility with all 70 plants running in 3 years at a P/E of 20 with
earnings as stated is mind-boggling. ]

Kurt
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