Steve, MRK represents the best of the fact that volatility creates profits. Friend bought it first week of Nov for 88 and sold mid-Mar for 130. One of my better TA stories.
It doesn't seem terribly unusual for a stock to recoil 50% of an explosive gain, with no significant deterioration of underlying fundamentals. I don't think missing a mean estimate by a penny constitutes a deterioration. Obviously, it became overvalued and the big boyz use this as a reason to rotate out, but the rotation has been going on for a month.
Looks to me like a 50% retracement corresponds real well with the 108 peak in mid-Jul.
The BAMBI indicator will be interesting to compute this week. AA issued a bullish signal, but this one's bullish signals don't look all that reliable. But, it looks like it's going to 85 or back to 70. A call/put spread opportunity?
More important, we have two bell weathers in the DJIA issuing bearish signals this week - JNJ and PG. Again, these signals don't happen often. And then, MRK has not even issued its bearish signal yet. Certainly, a lot of downward pressure.
But, we dudes all know why I chose the name BAMBI. I agree with TG as I recognize that I got a lot more tuition to pay at this game. But I learn.
Berney |
