Paul, I hope we don't see $20 again (my entry point!). I don't agree with Apple's current margin slashing strategy to slow loss of or add market share, if that's what this is truly all about. It's a very short term solution. Also, they basically tried this by clearing out all those Performas earlier in the year at a huge loss, and they still lost market share. So I suppose that's an argument that my idea of a market share pursuit strategy might be wrong. But Amelio and crew are smarter than I, and maybe the perception of shrinking market share is truly the biggest obstacle they have to overcome. Just review some of the past postings from those who claim Apple is already dead. This is the foundation of most of their arguments.
The road to Apple's resurgence, if it's going to happen at all, lies in offering something of significantly greater value to the market, and I believe they have a shot at making it happen, but not until the 2nd or 3rd quarter, namely, a CPU (CHRP) that can also run Windows NT and other operating systems, a much faster chip than the Wintel folks can offer (can you say 500 megahertz?) and better integration with Internet/multimedia. I will wait until spring of '97, and if Apple isn't heading firmly in these directions and demonstrating some "wow" appeal, I'll give up on holding for the long term. If Apple doesn't meet my expectations, they'll still be around, but the biggest upside potential will be behind us, and I'll reinvest in something more promising.
D. Kuspa |
